Will the 2016 assembly election be Stalin's to lead the DMK in?

For the AIADMK, winning the Srirangam by-election without Jayalalithaa campaigning for it, and having Panneerselvam as chief minister, is saying a lot in its favour. But again, a year and more is a long time in electoral politics in the country, and more so in Tamil Nadu, says N Sathiya Moorthy.

They are sure not to like this particular one, observes N Sathiya Moorthy

The Jaya-Jaitley meeting poses more questions than answers -- and not just for the Tamil Nadu BJP.

A double-quick analysis of the Lankan election results would show that the relatively narrow victory margin of challenger Maithripala Sirisena was made up by the three minority communities of Tamils, Muslims and Christians, says N Sathiya Moorthy.

Why is the BJP playing 'competitive politics' where there is scope or room for none? The release of 5 Indian fishermen on death row in Sri Lanka was a victory for India's quiet diplomacy of long years in the matter -- and not for loud politics by parties in the country.

There is a political vacuum emerging in Tamil Nadu, but can the Superstar, the state's biggest phenomenon since the late MGR, take advantage of it? Does he have what it takes to enter politics, or is he merely ensuring headlines ahead of his film's release, asks N Sathiya Moorthy.

In Tamil Nadu, the alternative to one Dravidian party has been another, and for one actor-politician CM, there is another. Their initial popularity may owe to their filmi charisma, but their continued acceptance owed to their government's policies and programmes targeting the poor and the needy in the state, says N Sathiya Moorthy.

Former Union minister GK Vasan's decision to revolt and float a separate outfit in Tamil Nadu serves as a deadly blow to the Grand Old Party, which is already struggling, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.

If the already demoralised Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam cadre, beaten worse by the shocking parliamentary poll debacle in May 2014 thought that the political set-back suffered by rival All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, Jayalalithaa Jayaram, in the light of a Bangalore court ordering a jail-term for her in September was a boon for their leadership, it's not to be.

While there is likely no bar on Jayalalithaa meeting with Chief Minister O Panneerselvam and his cabinet colleagues, she may not see senior government officials or see official files.

Independent of what the Karnataka high court and the Supreme Court might decide in Jayalalithaa's conviction and sentencing in the coming days, weeks and months, political arguments based on 'popular mandate' theory are plain untenable, says N Sathiya Moorthy.

'As Karunanidhi and Ramadoss flagged the law and order issue, Subramanian Swamy said Home Minister Rajnath Singh should send Chief Minister O Panneerselvam a directive under Article 246 of the Constitution. Swamy also dangled the fear of Article 356 over the state government.'

'The current impasse might be an occasion for Jayalalithaa's legal team to mull over what could have gone wrong with their strategy -- and where they could and should proceed from here,' says N Sathiya Moorthy.

O Panneerselvam is the first chai-wallah to become chief minister in the country. Gujarat's Narendra Modi, the better-known chai-wallah to become chief minister, followed Paneerselvam around a fortnight later in 2001. The parallel should end there, says N Sathiya Moorthy.

Given the history of the trial proceedings, and the documents that the judges and lawyers in the appeal courts have to read at every stage, Jayalalithaa's bail plea, when moved, will take time to be decided, placing a question mark over the party's electoral prospects in 2016.

Even without the ISI, ISIS and Al Qaeda, Tamil Nadu, otherwise acknowledged as a progressive and developed State in the Indian context, has been at the centre of 'multiple militancy' for decades now, points out N Sathiya Moorthy.

Having a young, untested leader makes sense for the Tamil Nadu BJP. But the new state president's immediate concern will be to gain acceptance within the state unit that is still in the grip of those with a strong RSS background, says N Sathiya Moorthy

A high-pitched battle between party patriarch Karunanidhi and son MK Stalin for power and the failure to oust corrupt leaders and maintain a clean image has left the party in shambles, observes N Sathiya Moorthy.

The Sri Lankan cartoon faux pas has revived the slackening pan-Tamil mood in Tamil Nadu, says N Sathiya Moorthy